Michael Pachter, Research Analyst as US firm Wedbush Securities has claimed that, “it is possible that Microsoft will reduce Xbox One pricing far faster than we have forecasted. Should hardware prices come down faster than we have modeled, it is likely that hardware and software sales will grow faster,” and is expecting to see a drop of $150 (to $349) over the next three years. Of course, the other consoles will be dropping their prices too; Pachter predicting a 50 percent drop on the Wii U to $150 by 2017, and a $100 drop on the PS4 to $299 by the same date – but the Xbox One will experience the heaviest fall.
This might come as little surprise considering that the PS4 is currently outselling the Xbox One, which makes Pachter’s further prediction that the Xbox One will sell 29 million units to the PS4’s 37.7 million sales by 2017 unsurprising. The Wii U will lag a little behind with 20 million units selling by the end of 2016, and Pachter mentions in passing that there is the possibility of Nintendo discontinuing production completely if sales aren’t as expected.
He also predicts that gaming software sales will increase by 10 percent this year, slowing to 7 percent, then to 6 in 2016 and that Microsoft and Sony will be responsible for most of this growth. He mentions that the highest-rated gaming stocks in Wedbush are Take-Two, Ubisoft, GameStop, Electronic Arts and Activision – all of which focus on core gamer audiences, which is interesting when you consider that the Microsoft have been keen to market the Xbox One as an entertainment hub rather than hardcore gamer console.
I’d love to see what happens to the PC gaming market in the next couple of years. I doubt I’ll be grabbing any of the next-gen consoles until they’re super-duper cheap! Aaron wrote a little while back about ‘Matt Matthews, a game industry analyst who writes for Gamasutra’ claiming that “Microsoft and Sony won’t be knocking any money off of their next generation consoles until 2015 at the latest,” so looks like we might be waiting for some time…